Premier League 2024-25 Season Review: Which Teams Were Most Profitable to Bet On?

•12 min read

A comprehensive analysis of betting profitability across all 20 Premier League teams, revealing surprising winners and costly disappointments for bettors.

The Season That Rewarded Contrarian Thinking

The 2024-25 Premier League season proved once again that popular doesn't mean profitable. While millions of bettors backed traditional powerhouses, the real money was made by those who identified value in unexpected places.

Our analysis of betting market performance reveals stark differences between fan favorites and profitable picks, with some shocking results that cost bettors millions.

Most Profitable Teams to Bet On

1. Liverpool - The Champions' Value

Position: 1st | Win Rate: 66% | Average Odds: 1.50

Despite being eventual champions, Liverpool offered exceptional value for early-season bettors. Their dominance in over/under goals markets and consistent performances made them the season's most reliable profitable pick.

2. Nottingham Forest - The Surprise Package

Position: 7th | Win Rate: 50% | Average Odds: 2.92

Forest's unexpected 6-match winning streak provided massive returns for those who spotted their value. Their odds remained high despite improving form, creating lucrative opportunities.

3. Fulham & Brentford - The Steady Earners

Fulham: 11th place, 39% win rate | Brentford: 10th place, 42% win rate

Both teams consistently outperformed their odds in specific markets, particularly in goal-scoring and defensive metrics. Their predictable patterns rewarded systematic bettors.

Least Profitable Teams (The Money Destroyers)

1. Manchester United - The Expensive Disappointment

Position: 15th | Win Rate: 29% | Average Odds: 4.82

Despite their massive global fanbase, United provided the worst ROI in the league. Popular betting choice but catastrophic results led to an estimated -15% ROI for season-long backers.

2. Tottenham Hotspur - The False Hope Merchants

Position: 17th | Win Rate: 29% | Average Odds: 5.29

Spurs' combination of hype and underperformance created a perfect storm for bettors. Heavy pre-season backing followed by dramatic collapses resulted in massive losses.

3. Southampton - The Relegation Nightmare

Position: 20th | Win Rate: 5% | Average Odds: 6.00

Southampton's 5% win rate made them a betting graveyard. Even their high odds couldn't compensate for such poor performance, delivering consistent losses.

Biggest Upsets That Cost Bettors Millions

Several shocking results throughout the season destroyed accumulator bets and cost individual bettors significant money:

Manchester United 0-3 Liverpool

United were heavily backed at home against their rivals. The comprehensive defeat wiped out thousands of accumulator bets and single-game wagers.

Tottenham Hotspur 3-6 Liverpool

The season's highest-scoring game. Over/under bettors who took the under were destroyed, while the goal feast surprised even optimistic predictions.

Wolves 2-6 Chelsea

Chelsea's explosive attacking display caught bettors off-guard. Wolves backers and under-goal bettors suffered significant losses.

Newcastle United 3-3 Liverpool

A dramatic comeback that destroyed Liverpool win bets while rewarding the few who backed the draw in a high-scoring affair.

The Mathematics of Emotional Betting

The worst-performing teams from a betting perspective shared common characteristics:

  • Massive fan bases that bet with emotion rather than logic
  • Inflated odds due to popularity rather than actual performance
  • Inconsistent performances that created false hope
  • Media hype that didn't match on-field reality

Key Insight

Teams like Manchester United and Tottenham attracted emotional bets that ignored statistical reality. Their poor league positions (15th and 17th respectively) created catastrophic losses for loyal fans who bet with their hearts.

Market Efficiency vs. Fan Loyalty

The 2024-25 season highlighted a crucial divide in betting markets:

Value Opportunities

  • • Newly promoted teams (early season)
  • • Mid-table teams with strong fundamentals
  • • Teams with coaching changes showing improvement
  • • Over/under markets in high-scoring teams

Value Traps

  • • Popular big clubs underperforming
  • • Teams with high social media following
  • • Traditional powerhouses in decline
  • • Accumulator favorites without statistical backing

Calculate Your Season's Betting Performance

See exactly how much you would have won or lost betting on any Premier League team throughout the 2024-25 season using real match data and odds.

Try Our Football Betting Calculator ⚽

Lessons for Future Seasons

The 2024-25 Premier League season reinforced several key principles:

  1. Popular ≠ Profitable: The most-backed teams often provide the worst returns
  2. Value exists in mid-table: Teams without massive fan bases often offer better odds
  3. Emotional betting destroys bankrolls: Supporting your team financially rarely pays off
  4. Consistency beats excitement: Steady performers outpace volatile crowd favorites
  5. Market inefficiencies are temporary: Value opportunities close quickly as information spreads

The harsh reality is that even sophisticated analysis of the Premier League's most profitable teams shows that systematic betting profitability remains elusive. The house edge, combined with the unpredictable nature of football, creates a mathematical headwind that few can overcome.

Rather than chasing the illusion of consistent betting profits, consider redirecting that capital toward investments with positive expected returns. Your future self will appreciate the compound growth over the fleeting excitement of match-day gambling.